Monday, 11 April 2011

It's not case of if, but when our default will happen As Portugal joins Europe's bailout club, Roisin Burke looks at what a default would mean for Ireland

Sunday April 10 2011

A must-read for financial types, The International Economy Magazine recently asked "a number of top thinkers" for odds onIreland and other embattled eurozone countries defaulting.
Those polled included senior ex-US Treasury figures, German bank economists, respected academics and hedge and investment fund bosses. Of the 25, 18 thought it was either "certain" or "probable" that Ireland would go under outright or face significant haircuts of sovereign debt within three to five years.
Analysis from researcher Capital Economics puts Ireland's default risk at more than one in three.
"Call it what you like -- default, call it debt restructuring, re-engineering -- but it is now inevitable," UCD economist Ray Kinsella says.
"I don't think we're talking in 2013, I think we're talking in the near term. In my view the markets may push us to that in months. The EU/IMF orthodoxy is pushing our economy into enforced default."
If it happened, what form would it take, and would it make things better or worse? We've looked 
at some of the possible .

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